What NOAA says now
El Niño is present and strengthening
NOAA's August 20 Climate Prediction Center discussion says El Niño is strengthening and has a greater than 90% chance of becoming very strong during fall and winter 2026–27.
- This is an official climate outlook, not a daily weather forecast.
- Seasonal probabilities describe broad patterns over three-month periods.
- A strong El Niño does not guarantee snow, rain, warmth, or cold for any one city.
Temperature outlook
Warmer odds favor the northern tier
NOAA's current December–February outlook favors above-normal temperatures across the northern tier, with probabilities above 50% from the Pacific Northwest to the Northeast. Near-normal temperatures are favored across much of the Southeast, while equal chances cover much of the Southwest.
- “Above normal” compares a season with the 1991–2020 climate average.
- It does not mean every winter day will be warm.
- Cold outbreaks and winter storms remain possible inside a warmer season.
Precipitation outlook
Wetter odds increase along parts of both coasts
NOAA's current winter outlook favors above-normal precipitation across much of coastal California, the southern tier, the Southeast, and much of the East Coast. Below-normal precipitation is modestly favored across parts of the Northern Rockies, Northern High Plains, Great Lakes, and mainland Alaska.
- Precipitation outlooks do not distinguish rain from snow months ahead.
- A wetter seasonal signal does not mean rain or snow on most days.
- Local storm tracks and temperatures determine actual snow and ice impacts.
Preparation without hype
Use the outlook for broad planning
Seasonal information is useful for reviewing routine winter needs, not for urgent shopping or choosing exact travel dates.
- Review cold-weather clothing, blankets, flashlights, chargers, and medicines already on hand.
- Check vehicle tires, battery, fluids, and an existing emergency kit before winter travel.
- Know where to find official local alerts, road information, and shelter guidance.
- Wait for a dependable local forecast before changing plans or buying storm-specific supplies.
Best time to go out
Seasonal outlooks cannot choose an hour
A better weather window for groceries, errands, appointments, travel, or outdoor activity must come from a current local hourly forecast—not a seasonal outlook.
- Months ahead: use NOAA seasonal outlooks only for broad awareness.
- About one week ahead: begin checking the local forecast and active alerts.
- Within 24–72 hours: compare hourly precipitation, temperature, wind, visibility, and alerts.
- When a warning or emergency instruction is active, follow it instead of a weather window.
Page reviewed: September 10, 2026