What NOAA says now
El Niño is present and may become very strong
NOAA's July 16 Climate Prediction Center discussion says El Niño has strengthened and is forecast to intensify through 2026. NOAA assigns an 81% chance that the event will be very strong during October–December 2026.
- This is an official climate outlook, not a daily weather forecast.
- Seasonal probabilities describe broad patterns over three-month periods.
- A strong El Niño does not guarantee snow, rain, warmth, or cold for any one city.
Temperature outlook
Warmer odds favor parts of the West, North, East, and Alaska
The July NOAA discussion describes a winter pattern favoring above-normal temperatures across the western and eastern United States and Alaska. Some parts of the Southwest, Southern Plains, Southeast, and Lower Mississippi Valley have equal chances or a tilt toward near-normal temperatures in portions of winter.
- “Above normal” compares a season with the 1991–2020 climate average.
- It does not mean every winter day will be warm.
- Cold outbreaks and winter storms remain possible inside a warmer season.
Precipitation outlook
A drier northern signal and wetter southern signal emerge
NOAA's July outlook favors below-normal precipitation from the Northwest into parts of the north-central United States and Great Lakes during winter, while above-normal precipitation is favored across parts of the southern tier, with the strongest signal over parts of the Southeast.
- Precipitation outlooks do not distinguish rain from snow months ahead.
- A wetter seasonal signal does not mean rain or snow on most days.
- Local storm tracks and temperatures determine actual snow and ice impacts.
Preparation without hype
Use the outlook for broad planning
Seasonal information is useful for reviewing routine winter needs, not for urgent shopping or choosing exact travel dates.
- Review cold-weather clothing, blankets, flashlights, chargers, and medicines already on hand.
- Check vehicle tires, battery, fluids, and an existing emergency kit before winter travel.
- Know where to find official local alerts, road information, and shelter guidance.
- Wait for a dependable local forecast before changing plans or buying storm-specific supplies.
Best time to go out
Seasonal outlooks cannot choose an hour
A better weather window for groceries, errands, appointments, travel, or outdoor activity must come from a current local hourly forecast—not a seasonal outlook.
- Months ahead: use NOAA seasonal outlooks only for broad awareness.
- About one week ahead: begin checking the local forecast and active alerts.
- Within 24–72 hours: compare hourly precipitation, temperature, wind, visibility, and alerts.
- When a warning or emergency instruction is active, follow it instead of a weather window.
Page reviewed: August 3, 2026